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The methodology described in this report addresses these problems through a hybrid-mathematics-based process that more » allows tracking of the degree of subjective information in the output, thereby providing more informative (as well as more appropriate) results. Although Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer methodology both allow judgment, neither derives results that can indicate the relative amounts of subjective judgment and measurable data in the results. For example, Dempster-Shafer theory establishes a framework in which frequentist probability and Bayesian incorporation of new data are subsets. In order to address this need, there has been considerable effort on analytically incorporating engineering judgment. However, most analyses, including high-consequence system surety analysis, must also utilize subjective information. « lessĬonventional systems surety analysis is basically restricted to measurable or physical-model-derived data. PHASER interfaces with other Sandia codes (SABLE, LHS and LHSPOST) to assist the user in determining cutsets, and to compute probability density functions. These are all utilized to illustrate methodology for incorporating dependence among analysis variables in generating PSA results, and for Importance and Sensitivity measures associated with the results that help point out where any major sources of safety concern arise and where any major sources of uncertainty reside, = factors for the two constituents of uncertainty, giving a complete hybrid result. The basic concepts involve scale factors and confidence factors that are associated with the stochastic variability and subjective uncertainty (which are common adjuncts used in PSA), and the safety risk extremes that are crucial to safety assessment. A more detailed description is given in this report. An earlier report described the PHASER methodology, but only gave a cursory explanation about how dependence was incorporated in Version 1.10 and about how ``Importance`` and ``Sensitivity`` measures were to be incorporated in Version 2.00.
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#Abscissa de um ponto software#
PHASER (Probabilistic Hybrid Analytical System Evaluation Routine) is a software tool that has the capability of incorporating subjective expert judgment into probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) along with conventional data inputs.